AURA-FED is a real-time gauge of market-implied uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy-rate path. A higher reading indicates wider dispersion in implied outcomes (more "repricing" risk); a lower reading indicates a more anchored market view of the forward path. Reported in basis points. The Headline aggregates Near-Term and Path horizon dispersion (OI-weighted). Terminal is published as a standalone reference horizon.
| Inception date | 2025-08-06 |
| Reference | Distribution σ (basis points) |
| Universe | Kalshi, Polymarket |
| Update cadence | Daily |
| Active families | 2 |
| Horizons | Near-Term, Path, Terminal |
| Horizon | Weight | σ (bp) | OI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Term | 0.0% | — | $0.00M |
| Path | 100.0% | 58.06 bp | $11.14M |
| Terminal | 0.0% | — | $0.00M |
The core primitive is σbp: the basis-point standard deviation of each contract family’s implied policy-rate distribution. Family-level values are open-interest-weighted across the in-scope universe at three horizons (Near-Term: 0–90 days; Path: 91–365 days; Terminal: >365 days). The published Headline combines Near-Term and Path. Wasserstein-1 distance between consecutive-day distributions, computed on the basis-point grid, is published as a companion measure of daily repricing intensity. Full methodology: aurelianhq.com/indices/aura-fed/methodology.