As of 15 October 2026Sector Macro · Policy Uncertainty
AURA-PUI
AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A daily indicator of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, calibrated from prediction-market contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket across five policy domains. Base 100 = inception.
75.57index
+0.86 1D
8th percentile since inception
Index level · since inception
Historical context
Today's percentile
8 /100
Since inception
52-week range
66.7 – 131.3
Latest at 14% of range
All-time range
54.8 – 143.2
Median 98.5
30-day volatility
13.02
Stdev of daily levels
What it measures
AURA-PUI is a real-time gauge of U.S. economic policy uncertainty. A higher reading indicates broader market-implied uncertainty about the policy outlook; a lower reading indicates compression of that uncertainty, not market improvement. Coverage spans monetary, fiscal & regulatory, trade & geopolitical, macroeconomic, and sector-specific policy domains. It is provided for informational and research purposes only.
Index details
Inception date
2024-04-20
Reference
Index level (base 100)
Universe
Kalshi, Polymarket
Update cadence
Daily
Constituents (60D avg)
35
Active domains
4 of 5
Composition
Domain
Weight (60D)
Sub-index
Monetary Policy
39.4%
48.30
Trade & Geopolitical
9.6%
78.40
Fiscal & Regulatory
46.5%
89.23
Macroeconomic
4.5%
97.54
Sector-Specific
0.0%
104.00
Top constituents (today)
Weight
Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ?
Polymarket · Monetary
10.43%
Senatetx 26 R
Kalshi · Fiscal
10.27%
Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0
Kalshi · Monetary
9.27%
US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through No
Polymarket · Trade
8.78%
Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ?
Polymarket · Monetary
6.60%
Senatetx 26 D
Kalshi · Fiscal
6.09%
2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5
Polymarket · Fiscal
5.82%
Will No Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026?
Polymarket · Monetary
5.59%
2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4
Polymarket · Fiscal
5.44%
US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through De
Polymarket · Trade
4.79%
Methodology
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline. Full methodology: aurelianhq.com/indices/aura-pui/methodology.