Terms of Use

Effective 2026-05-05

1. Acceptance

By accessing aurelianhq.com, you agree to these Terms of Use. If you do not agree, do not use the site.

2. Service description

Aurelian publishes research indices derived from prediction-market prices. Index values, methodology documents, and historical series are made available for informational and research purposes.

3. Permitted use

Index values and historical series may be used for non-commercial research purposes, including academic publication, with attribution to Aurelian. For institutional, commercial, or redistribution use, contact support@aurelianhq.com for licensing terms.

4. Not investment advice

Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to trade any contract, or a benchmark for any financial product. Aurelian indices are measurements of observable prediction-market dispersion; they are not tradable instruments and do not predict future outcomes.

5. No warranty

The site, indices, and underlying data are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Aurelian does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any index value or methodology description. Source-venue data (Kalshi, Polymarket) is fetched via public APIs and is subject to source-venue terms and availability.

6. Limitation of liability

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aurelian disclaims all liability for any loss arising from use of or reliance on the site, indices, or underlying data.

7. Modifications

Aurelian may revise these terms at any time. Material revisions will be reflected in the effective date above.

8. Contact

Questions about these terms: support@aurelianhq.com.