AURA-PUI
AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A real-time measure of U.S. economic policy uncertainty across five policy domains, derived from contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. Published daily with intraday indicative values.
92.26?Index levels reflect prevailing policy uncertainty. Declines indicate compression of market-priced uncertainty, not index deterioration.
Index, base 100 = 2024-04-20
−0.76 (−0.82%)
AURA-PUI eased 0.8 pts to 92.26 today, capping a week in which the index shed 8 pts. The reading is below historical average. Monetary policy contracts comprise 38% of basket weight, with trade & geopolitical at 31%.
1D
−0.76−0.82%
1W
−8.19−8.15%
1M
−2.21−2.34%
YTD
−8.10−8.07%
1Y
−24.28−20.83%
52W H-L
66.66 – 131.29
Index composition
| Domain | Weight | Sub-index | 1D Δ | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 38.1% | 77.18 | +2.76 | 7 |
| Trade & Geopolitical | 31.4% | 100.23 | −3.11 | 10 |
| Fiscal & Regulatory | 21.3% | 76.54 | +0.25 | 17 |
| Macroeconomic | 8.4% | 58.17 | +0.79 | 1 |
| Sector-Specific | 0.8% | — | — | 0 |
Note: All five economic policy domains are currently active. Weights are post-cap (50% per-domain concentration cap). Sub-indices are computed independently per domain and aggregate into the headline AURA-PUI level.
Composition history
Monetary
Trade
Fiscal
Macro
Sector
Top constituents
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 20.76% | 13.66 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 16.55% | 10.02 |
| Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 8.00% | 0.64 |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 | Polymarket | Monetary | 4.98% | 3.78 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31 20 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 4.29% | 1.96 |
| Kxretiremm 26 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 4.28% | 2.68 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0 | Kalshi | Monetary | 4.20% | 2.16 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 4.06% | 3.26 |
| Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.19% | 1.72 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 3.14% | 1.83 |
| Senatetx 26 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.88% | 1.30 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 2.70% | 1.49 |
| Will No Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026? | Polymarket | Monetary | 2.45% | 1.11 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.38% | 1.04 |
| Senatetx 26 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.37% | 1.09 |
| Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ju | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 2.26% | 0.96 |
| Controls 2026 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.23% | 0.88 |
| Kxtrumpvslaughter | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.57% | 0.49 |
| Will 3 Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026? | Polymarket | Monetary | 1.46% | 0.34 |
| Kxbluewavecombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.18% | 0.65 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 1.12% | 0.65 |
| 2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 1.07% | 0.39 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 0.87% | 0.25 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 0.32% | 0.15 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dd | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.27% | 0.10 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.26% | 0.13 |
| Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Kpat | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.19% | 0.15 |
| Kxrecssnber 26 | Kalshi | Macro | 0.19% | 0.06 |
| Kxusairanagreement 27 | Kalshi | Trade & Geo | 0.18% | 0.11 |
| Kxusairanagreement 27 26sep | Kalshi | Trade & Geo | 0.15% | 0.07 |
| Controls 2026 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.13% | 0.05 |
| Kximpeach 28 Jan01 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.13% | 0.07 |
| Kxusairanagreement 27 26aug | Kalshi | Trade & Geo | 0.08% | 0.03 |
| Kximpeach 29 Jan20 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.06% | 0.03 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1 | Kalshi | Monetary | 0.06% | 0.03 |
Note: Contribution = weight × uncertainty score × 100, surfacing contracts whose weighted score actually moves the headline.
Live drivers
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Δ Price | Weight | Δ Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | +0.000 | 16.55% | ↓ −1.12 |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 | Polymarket | Monetary | +0.000 | 4.98% | ↑ +0.66 |
| Kxretiremm 26 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | +0.030 | 4.28% | ↑ +0.48 |
| Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ju | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | −0.004 | 2.26% | ↑ +0.24 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | +0.000 | 4.06% | ↑ +0.23 |
Note: Δ Contribution = (weight × composite score)today − (weight × composite score)prior day, ×100. A positive value (↑) means the contract's weighted score pushed the headline higher today; a negative value (↓) pushed it lower. Newly listed constituents (no prior-day data) are flagged.
Regime occupancy
Today: Elevated, 88% probabilityA 3-state hidden Markov model classifies each day's headline reading into calm, elevated, or crisis. The strip below shows the most-likely state per day, opacity-modulated by the model's confidence; uncertainty mass for the unlabelled states is split evenly in the stacked-area visualization.
Calm
Elevated
Crisis
Last 30 days
Calm 0%
Elev 37%
Crisis 63%
Last 90 days
Calm 10%
Elev 58%
Crisis 32%
Since inception
Calm 20%
Elev 38%
Crisis 41%
Recent observations
| Date | Level | Change | Const. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 98.51 | +3.26 | 37 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93.54 | −4.97 | 39 |
| 2026-06-19 | 98.54 | +5.00 | 37 |
| 2026-06-20 | 97.51 | −1.03 | 36 |
| 2026-06-21 | 100.78 | +3.27 | 33 |
| 2026-06-22 | 103.51 | +2.73 | 32 |
| 2026-06-23 | 104.66 | +1.15 | 32 |
| 2026-06-24 | 100.45 | −4.21 | 31 |
| 2026-06-25 | 94.10 | −6.35 | 30 |
| 2026-06-26 | 91.20 | −2.90 | 30 |
| 2026-06-27 | 87.91 | −3.29 | 28 |
| 2026-06-28 | 99.56 | +11.65 | 33 |
| 2026-06-29 | 95.23 | −4.33 | 35 |
| 2026-06-30 | 93.02 | −2.21 | 36 |
| 2026-07-01 | 92.26 | −0.76 | 35 |
Reconstitution timeline
Most-recent basket entry/exit events with the headline impact at the time. Default view shows the top 20; click below to expand to the latest 100 events. "MAJOR" badges flag events that met at least one of: |1D move| ≥ 10 pts, combined add+remove ≥ 4, or composition change ≥ 150%. Older history (324 events prior to the most-recent 100) is recorded in the methodology archive.
2026-06-30Headline 93.02 −2.13
+Kxretiremm 26
2026-06-29Headline 95.15 −4.61
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg+Will 3 Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026?
2026-06-28Headline 99.76 +0.42
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec
2026-06-27Headline 99.34 −0.14
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov
2026-06-26Headline 99.48 −0.75
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September
2026-06-25Headline 100.23 −4.46MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-06-24Headline 104.69 +1.29
−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30 20
2026-06-23Headline 103.40 −3.85
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab
2026-06-22Headline 107.25 +1.89MAJOR
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13 +US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18 +US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31 20−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-06-21Headline 105.36 −0.17MAJOR
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31 +US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30 20−Kxretiremm 26−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut−Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-20Headline 105.53 +0.59
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxusairanagreement 27 26jul
2026-06-19Headline 104.94 +5.07MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-06-18Headline 99.87 −5.77
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-17Headline 105.64 +6.55MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20+Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ?−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−US and Iran Sign an Agreement by July 31−US and Iran Sign an Agreement by June 22−US and Iran Sign an Agreement by June 30−US Iran Nuclear Deal by June 30−3 more
2026-06-16Headline 99.09 +1.49MAJOR
+Kxretiremm 26+Will the Fed Decrease Interest Rates by ?+Will the Text of the US Iran Agreement B?−Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxusairanagreement 27 28−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Decemb
2026-06-14Headline 100.21 −12.38MAJOR
+Kxtrumpvslaughter+Kxusairanagreement 27 28+Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ju+Will the Fed Decrease Interest Rates by ?−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4
2026-06-12Headline 112.76 +3.63MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov+US and Iran Sign an Agreement by July 31
2026-06-11Headline 109.13 +5.95MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct+US and Iran Sign an Agreement by June 22+US and Iran Sign an Agreement by June 30−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-06-10Headline 103.18 +7.44MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 1
2026-06-09Headline 95.74 +2.94
+Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb
2026-06-08Headline 92.80 +3.45MAJOR
−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−1 more
2026-06-07Headline 89.35 +0.95MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxelectionbill Aug01−Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50
2026-06-06Headline 88.40 +0.48
+Kxelectionbill Aug01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-06-04Headline 90.63 −0.45MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxdsenateseats 27 49−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-03Headline 91.08 −1.95MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 49+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxlosemajority 27jan01
2026-06-02Headline 93.03 −3.23MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxdhouseseats 27 210−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-06-01Headline 96.26 −6.31MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9+2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4+2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5+9 more−Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-05-31Headline 102.57 +3.80
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Kxnextspeaker 31 Hjef
2026-05-30Headline 98.77 −5.81
+Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec
2026-05-29Headline 104.58 −0.07MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxsenatetxr 26 Jc−Kxsenatetxr 26 Kp−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-28Headline 104.65 +0.98MAJOR
+Kxlosemajority 27jan01+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd−Kxelectionbill 27jan01
2026-05-27Headline 103.67 −3.50MAJOR
+Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut
2026-05-26Headline 107.17 +2.23MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 210+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53−US Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 974
2026-05-25Headline 104.94 −2.32
+Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-05-24Headline 107.26 +20.47MAJOR
+Kxnextspeaker 31 Hjef+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 28+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ma
2026-05-23Headline 86.79 −2.07
+Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000−Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-22Headline 88.86 −3.68
+Kximpeach 27 Jan01+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-05-21Headline 92.54 +2.23MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Kxsenatemed 26 Gra+Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-05-20Headline 90.31 −1.27
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2
2026-05-19Headline 91.58 −2.47MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Kximpeach 29 Jan20+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-16Headline 95.21 +3.40MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−Kxcitrini 28jul01−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-05-15Headline 91.81 −4.33MAJOR
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxdhouseseats 27 210−Kxdhouseseats 27 249−Kxtariffchecks 26 27−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−3 more
2026-05-14Headline 96.14 +3.52MAJOR
+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Power 28 Rh Rs Rp−Kxtrumpvslaughter−Will Donald Trump Not Visit China by May?
2026-05-13Headline 92.62 −1.60MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 249−Kxu3max 27 5−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 15 ?
2026-05-12Headline 94.22 −0.27
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000
2026-05-11Headline 94.49 −5.57MAJOR
+Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 16−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 16 ?
2026-05-10Headline 100.06 +3.60
−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 15−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 15
2026-05-09Headline 96.46 −0.76MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 15 ?−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-05-08Headline 97.22 +3.78MAJOR
+Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb+Kxcitrini 28jul01+Kxdhouseseats 27 210+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+2 more−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtariffchecks 26 Aug−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 15 ?
2026-05-07Headline 93.44 −1.56
−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxu3max 27 5
2026-05-06Headline 95.00 +0.97MAJOR
+Kxtariffchecks 26 27+Kxtariffchecks 26 Aug+Kxu3max 27 5+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 31
2026-05-04Headline 92.56 +1.02
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2
2026-05-03Headline 91.54 +1.90
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14
2026-05-02Headline 89.64 +2.21MAJOR
−Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxtrumpremove−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 16 ?
2026-05-01Headline 87.43 +5.55MAJOR
+Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ma−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxcitrini 28jul01−Kxtariffchecks 26 27−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by June 3−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 11 ?−4 more
2026-04-30Headline 81.88 +0.76MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+US Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 974
2026-04-29Headline 81.12 −7.65MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2+Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-04-28Headline 88.77 −9.44MAJOR
+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 15+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 16+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 15+Will Donald Trump Not Visit China by May?+Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 11 ?+8 more−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-04-27Headline 98.21 +6.05MAJOR
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Will Kevin Warsh be Confirmed as Fed Cha?
2026-04-25Headline 90.63 +7.29MAJOR
+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14−Kxdsenateseats 27 51−Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ap−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April
2026-04-24Headline 83.34 +2.94
−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Will Trump Visit China by May 8 157?
2026-04-23Headline 80.40 −1.53
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Will Trump Agree to Iranian Oil Sanction?
2026-04-22Headline 81.93 +2.38
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April
2026-04-20Headline 81.77 −1.91
+Kximpeach 29 Jan20+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxelectionbill 27jan01
2026-04-19Headline 83.68 −4.50
+Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ap+Will Trump Agree to Iranian Oil Sanction?−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-04-18Headline 88.18 −8.31MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 51+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by June 3+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 31−Kxemercuts 26 T1−Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Kxtrumppardons 29jan21 Bar−Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Dmk W?
2026-04-17Headline 96.49 +1.64MAJOR
+Kxu3max 27 5+Kxusairanagreement 27 28+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-04-15Headline 87.27 −3.54
+Will Trump Visit China by May 8 157?−Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53−Kximpeach 29 Jan20
2026-04-14Headline 90.81 +6.24
+Kxusairanagreement 27 26jul+Kxusairanagreement 27 26sep
2026-04-13Headline 84.57 −1.56
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam Tvk Win Th?
2026-04-12Headline 86.13 +0.27
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb+Kxelectionbill 27jan01
2026-04-11Headline 85.86 −3.07
+Kxemercuts 26 T1+Kxtrumppardons 29jan21 Bar−Kxlutnickout 26sep01
2026-04-10Headline 88.93 −2.61
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxu3max 27 5
2026-04-09Headline 91.54 −3.70
+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April +Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam Tvk Win Th?−Kxloseprimarysenated 26nov03 0
2026-04-08Headline 95.24 +2.89
+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-04-07Headline 92.35 +3.03
+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-04-04Headline 88.30 +1.63MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Kxlutnickout 26sep01+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Smil+Kxtrumpremove−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxfeddecision 26apr H0−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pbon
2026-04-03Headline 86.67 −0.55
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut−Kxnumshutdowns 27jan01 T2
2026-04-02Headline 87.22 −0.23MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5+Kxloseprimarysenated 26nov03 0+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+Kxu3max 27 5−Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam Tvk Win Th?
2026-04-01Headline 87.45 +1.01MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 249+Kximpeach 29 Jan20+Will Marco Rubio be the Next to Leave Th?−Kxfeddecision 26apr C25−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5−Kxu3max 27 5
2026-03-31Headline 86.44 −1.32MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Will No One Leave the Trump Cabinet Befo?−Will the Bharatiya Janata Party Bjp Win ?−Will Trump Visit China by April 30?
2026-03-30Headline 87.76 +3.73MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxnumshutdowns 27jan01 T2−Kximpeach 27 Jan01
2026-03-29Headline 84.03 +1.13
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5
2026-03-27Headline 85.04 −1.19MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P5−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2−Will Linda Mcmahon be the Next to Leave ?
2026-03-26Headline 86.23 −7.32MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P5−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Will Trump Visit China by June 30 247 58?−Will Trump Visit China by May 31 344 493?
2026-03-25Headline 93.55 +0.58
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-03-24Headline 92.97 +0.96MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Knoe+Will Linda Mcmahon be the Next to Leave ?+Will Pete Hegseth be the Next to Leave T?−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxfeddecision 26jun C26−Kxreccount 27 0
2026-03-23Headline 92.01 +2.64
−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Will Linda Mcmahon be the Next to Leave ?−Will Pete Hegseth be the Next to Leave T?
2026-03-22Headline 89.37 −0.09
+Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Will Lee Zeldin be the Next to Leave the?
2026-03-21Headline 89.46 −0.39
−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14−Will Marco Rubio be the Next to Leave Th?
2026-03-20Headline 89.85 −2.46
+Kxfeddecision 26jun C26+Will Linda Mcmahon be the Next to Leave ?−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-03-19Headline 92.31 −2.47
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxloseprimarysenated 26nov03 0−Will Linda Mcmahon be the Next to Leave ?
2026-03-18Headline 94.78 −6.91
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14
2026-03-17Headline 101.69 +3.93MAJOR
+Kxreccount 27 0+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab+Will No One Leave the Trump Cabinet Befo?+Will the Bharatiya Janata Party Bjp Win ?+Will Trump Visit China by June 30 247 58?+1 more−Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5
2026-03-14Headline 92.42 −0.06
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 4−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab
2026-03-12Headline 92.59 −1.18MAJOR
+Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Kxclosehormuz 27jan−Kxclosehormuz 27jan 26aug−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T3
2026-03-11Headline 93.77 +6.24MAJOR
−Kxcallimpeachrcongress 26 27−Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Kxtrumppardons 29jan21 Bar−Will Judy Shelton be Confirmed as Fed Ch?
2026-03-10Headline 87.53 −2.08
+Kxcallimpeachrcongress 26 27+Will Linda Mcmahon be the Next to Leave ?
2026-03-09Headline 89.61 −1.96MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxcabout 29jan Lcdr−Kxtariffchecks 26 Aug
2026-03-08Headline 91.57 +1.98MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5+Will Lee Zeldin be the Next to Leave the?+Will Marco Rubio be the Next to Leave Th?−Kxcabout 29jan Hlut−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14
AURA-PUI is a daily index of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, built from prediction market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. It covers five policy domains: monetary, fiscal and regulatory, trade and geopolitical, macroeconomic outcomes, and sector-specific. The index aggregates uncertainty signals from active, policy-relevant contracts into a single daily headline level (base 100, inception April 20, 2024).
Inputs
AURA-PUI draws on binary and multi-outcome contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. For each contract, the index uses the current price, recent price dynamics, traded volume, and, where available, the quoted bid-ask spread. Contracts are screened for policy relevance and assigned to one of the five domains.
Construction
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline.
Revisions
v2.6 (June 10, 2026): Layer-2 conditional-uncertainty normalization changed from median-referenced z-scores to a pooled cross-sectional ECDF, removing score saturation; index scaling re-anchored level-neutrally at the cutover; point-in-time daily volume measurement adopted for Polymarket constituents; daily values finalize at T+1. The eligible contract universe was simultaneously restocked (+104 markets ahead of the 2026 midterms), so prints around the cutover date reflect both the methodology revision and the broader universe. Published values dated before the cutover are locked and unaffected.
Data sources
Aurelian fetches contract prices via public APIs and computes derived series independently. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or co-publish this index.
- Informational use only. AURA-PUI is provided for informational and research purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to trade any contract, and not a benchmark for any financial product.
- Independent publisher. Aurelian is not affiliated with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any contract issuer or exchange. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or review this index or its methodology.
- Methodology may evolve. Aurelian reserves the right to refine the index methodology. Material revisions are documented in the methodology paper. Historical levels are not retroactively recomputed under revised methodology.
- Data quality. Prediction-market liquidity varies; periods of low aggregate liquidity may increase index sensitivity to single contracts. The methodology documents the cap and blending rules that mitigate this.
- Past performance. AURA-PUI is a measurement, not a tradable instrument. Historical levels do not indicate future levels of policy uncertainty.
Index Updates and Research
Contact
Questions or data requests: support@aurelianhq.com