AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A real-time measure of U.S. economic policy uncertainty across five policy domains, derived from contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. Published daily with intraday indicative values.
AURA-PUI rose 0.9 pts to 75.57, well below historical average. Fiscal & regulatory contracts comprise 47% of basket weight, with monetary policy at 30%. Over the past 30 days the index is down 18.6 points as cross contract disagreement narrowed.
Index composition
| Domain | Weight | Sub-index | 1D Δ | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 30.4% | 48.30 | +2.82 | 5 |
| Trade & Geopolitical | 16.5% | 78.40 | +2.03 | 4 |
| Fiscal & Regulatory | 46.9% | 89.23 | −0.01 | 25 |
| Macroeconomic | 6.2% | — | — | 0 |
| Sector-Specific | — | — | — | 0 |
Note: Currently inactive: Sector-Specific (admitted when qualifying contracts list). Weights are post-cap (50% per-domain concentration cap). Sub-indices are computed independently per domain and aggregate into the headline AURA-PUI level.
Composition history
Top constituents
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 10.43% | 5.20 |
| Senatetx 26 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 10.27% | 6.39 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0 | Kalshi | Monetary | 9.27% | 1.95 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through No | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 8.78% | 4.87 |
| Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 6.60% | 1.16 |
| Senatetx 26 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 6.09% | 3.85 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 5.82% | 1.46 |
| Will No Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026? | Polymarket | Monetary | 5.59% | 0.91 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 5.44% | 2.31 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through De | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 4.79% | 2.53 |
| 2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 4.40% | 2.51 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 3.34% | 1.07 |
| Controls 2026 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.58% | 1.22 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.47% | 0.83 |
| Controls 2026 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.36% | 1.30 |
| Kxbluewavecombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.31% | 1.54 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dd | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.00% | 1.17 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.67% | 0.76 |
| Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.15% | 0.63 |
| Kxdsenateseats 27 51 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.00% | 0.32 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 0.67% | 0.22 |
| Kxdsenateseats 27 49 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.64% | 0.19 |
| Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting | Polymarket | Monetary | 0.52% | 0.10 |
| Kxdhouseseats 27 236 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.52% | 0.24 |
| Kximpeach 29 Jan20 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.26% | 0.16 |
| Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.25% | 0.16 |
| Kxdhouseseats 27 249 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.15% | 0.07 |
| Kxrhouseseats 27 193 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.13% | 0.06 |
| Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.13% | 0.09 |
| Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.12% | 0.05 |
| Kxdsenateseats 27 52 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.07% | 0.04 |
| Rsenateseats 27 E45 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.07% | 0.03 |
| Kximpeach 28 Jan01 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.06% | 0.03 |
| Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.04% | 0.02 |
Note: Contribution = weight × uncertainty score × 100, surfacing contracts whose weighted score actually moves the headline.
Live drivers
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Δ Price | Weight | Δ Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | +0.000 | 4.40% | ↑ +0.55 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | +0.000 | 5.82% | ↓ −0.38 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0 | Kalshi | Monetary | −0.009 | 9.27% | ↑ +0.32 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | +0.000 | 5.44% | ↓ −0.32 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through De | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | +0.020 | 4.79% | ↑ +0.31 |
Note: Δ Contribution = (weight × composite score)today − (weight × composite score)prior day, ×100. A positive value (↑) means the contract's weighted score pushed the headline higher today; a negative value (↓) pushed it lower. Newly listed constituents (no prior-day data) are flagged.
Regime occupancy
Today: Calm, 100% probabilityA 3-state hidden Markov model classifies each day's headline reading into calm, elevated, or crisis. The strip below shows the most-likely state per day, opacity-modulated by the model's confidence; uncertainty mass for the unlabelled states is split evenly in the stacked-area visualization.
Recent observations
| Date | Level | Change | Const. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 92.04 | −1.35 | 36 |
| 2026-10-02 | 86.08 | −5.96 | 38 |
| 2026-10-03 | 84.75 | −1.33 | 36 |
| 2026-10-04 | 84.57 | −0.18 | 38 |
| 2026-10-05 | 82.70 | −1.87 | 38 |
| 2026-10-06 | 80.05 | −2.65 | 37 |
| 2026-10-07 | 79.92 | −0.13 | 40 |
| 2026-10-08 | 77.35 | −2.57 | 39 |
| 2026-10-09 | 74.19 | −3.16 | 39 |
| 2026-10-10 | 71.96 | −2.23 | 39 |
| 2026-10-11 | 69.69 | −2.27 | 37 |
| 2026-10-12 | 69.69 | +0.00 | 34 |
| 2026-10-13 | 71.38 | +1.69 | 35 |
| 2026-10-14 | 74.71 | +3.33 | 34 |
| 2026-10-15 | 75.57 | +0.86 | 34 |
Reconstitution timeline
Most-recent basket entry/exit events with the headline impact at the time. Default view shows the top 20; click below to expand to the latest 100 events. "MAJOR" badges flag events that met at least one of: |1D move| ≥ 10 pts, combined add+remove ≥ 4, or composition change ≥ 150%. Older history (379 events prior to the most-recent 100) is recorded in the methodology archive.
Inputs
AURA-PUI draws on binary and multi-outcome contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. For each contract, the index uses the current price, recent price dynamics, traded volume, and, where available, the quoted bid-ask spread. Contracts are screened for policy relevance and assigned to one of the five domains.
Construction
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline.
Revisions
v2.6 (June 10, 2026): Layer-2 conditional-uncertainty normalization changed from median-referenced z-scores to a pooled cross-sectional ECDF, removing score saturation; index scaling re-anchored level-neutrally at the cutover; point-in-time daily volume measurement adopted for Polymarket constituents; daily values finalize at T+1. The eligible contract universe was simultaneously restocked (+104 markets ahead of the 2026 midterms), so prints around the cutover date reflect both the methodology revision and the broader universe. Published values dated before the cutover are locked and unaffected.
v2.7 (September 16, 2026): Three construction fixes from an engine audit. The 50% domain concentration cap and the score-proportional per-contract caps are now enforced jointly as a single projection; previously the per-contract step could leave individual weights above their documented caps (13% of published domain-days in the sub-indices, and the headline on days a post-hoc domain re-cap fired), and per-contract enforcement now uses an exact water-fill. Domain persistence activates only when a domain has no live constituents and carries its last value at a decaying weight rather than decaying the value itself. Index scaling re-anchored level-neutrally at the cutover from a trailing-60-day comparison of old and new construction on identical data (headline effect about 2 points, daily correlation 0.98; sub-indices essentially unchanged). Published values dated before the cutover are locked and unaffected; historical cap exceedances remain in the record as published and are disclosed here.
Data sources
Aurelian fetches contract prices via public APIs and computes derived series independently. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or co-publish this index.
- Informational use only. AURA-PUI is provided for informational and research purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to trade any contract, and not a benchmark for any financial product.
- Independent publisher. Aurelian is not affiliated with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any contract issuer or exchange. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or review this index or its methodology.
- Methodology may evolve. Aurelian reserves the right to refine the index methodology. Material revisions are documented in the methodology paper. Historical levels are not retroactively recomputed under revised methodology.
- Data quality. Prediction-market liquidity varies; periods of low aggregate liquidity may increase index sensitivity to single contracts. The methodology documents the cap and blending rules that mitigate this.
- Past performance. AURA-PUI is a measurement, not a tradable instrument. Historical levels do not indicate future levels of policy uncertainty.
Contact
Questions or data requests: support@aurelianhq.com