AURA-PUI
AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A real-time measure of U.S. economic policy uncertainty across five policy domains, derived from contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. Published daily with intraday indicative values.
96.54?Index levels reflect prevailing policy uncertainty. Declines indicate compression of market-priced uncertainty, not index deterioration.
Index, base 100 = 2024-04-20
+0.20 (+0.21%)
AURA-PUI rose 0.2 pts to 96.54, near historical average. Fiscal & regulatory contracts comprise 48% of basket weight, with monetary policy at 38%.
1D
+0.20+0.21%
1W
+2.11+2.23%
1M
−1.88−1.91%
YTD
−3.82−3.81%
1Y
−2.01−2.04%
52W H-L
66.66 – 131.29
Index composition
| Domain | Weight | Sub-index | 1D Δ | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 38.3% | 82.98 | +0.96 | 8 |
| Trade & Geopolitical | 9.2% | 112.35 | −2.98 | 5 |
| Fiscal & Regulatory | 47.5% | 82.95 | −2.73 | 23 |
| Macroeconomic | 5.1% | — | — | 0 |
| Sector-Specific | — | — | — | 0 |
Note: Currently inactive: Sector-Specific (admitted when qualifying contracts list). Weights are post-cap (50% per-domain concentration cap). Sub-indices are computed independently per domain and aggregate into the headline AURA-PUI level.
Composition history
Monetary
Trade
Fiscal
Macro
Sector
Top constituents
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 23.45% | 20.04 |
| Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 8.68% | 0.71 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Se | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 4.29% | 3.48 |
| Senatetx 26 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.79% | 2.21 |
| Kxagencyelim 29 Usaid | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.69% | 2.39 |
| Senatetx 26 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.53% | 1.92 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 3.42% | 1.43 |
| Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.38% | 1.68 |
| Kxdebtgrowth 28dec31 45 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.32% | 1.61 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0 | Kalshi | Monetary | 3.06% | 1.52 |
| Controls 2026 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.98% | 1.55 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 2.87% | 0.71 |
| Controls 2026 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.83% | 1.54 |
| Kxelectionemergency 26nov04 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.76% | 1.66 |
| Kximpeach 27 Mar01 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.68% | 1.26 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.64% | 0.76 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.63% | 0.92 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dd | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.58% | 1.12 |
| Kxbluewavecombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.45% | 1.05 |
| Kximpeach 28 Jan01 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.32% | 1.48 |
| Will No Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026? | Polymarket | Monetary | 2.03% | 0.72 |
| Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.99% | 1.01 |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 | Polymarket | Monetary | 1.95% | 1.56 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Oc | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 1.54% | 1.30 |
| Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.23% | 1.21 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 1.01% | 0.58 |
| Will 2 Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026? | Polymarket | Monetary | 0.91% | 0.17 |
| 2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 0.77% | 0.44 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 0.36% | 0.09 |
| Kxretiremm 26 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.17% | 0.05 |
| Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.16% | 0.11 |
| Fed Rate Cut by October 2026 Meeting 199 | Polymarket | Monetary | 0.15% | 0.03 |
| Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.12% | 0.04 |
| Kximpeach 29 Jan20 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.09% | 0.06 |
| Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting | Polymarket | Monetary | 0.08% | 0.03 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 0.07% | 0.03 |
Note: Contribution = weight × uncertainty score × 100, surfacing contracts whose weighted score actually moves the headline.
Live drivers
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Δ Price | Weight | Δ Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ? | Polymarket | Monetary | −0.030 | 23.45% | ↑ +1.04 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Se | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | +0.010 | 4.29% | ↓ −0.44 |
| Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | +0.005 | 3.38% | ↓ −0.38 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | +0.000 | 2.87% | ↑ +0.28 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | +0.000 | 3.42% | ↓ −0.20 |
Note: Δ Contribution = (weight × composite score)today − (weight × composite score)prior day, ×100. A positive value (↑) means the contract's weighted score pushed the headline higher today; a negative value (↓) pushed it lower. Newly listed constituents (no prior-day data) are flagged.
Regime occupancy
Today: Elevated, 64% probabilityA 3-state hidden Markov model classifies each day's headline reading into calm, elevated, or crisis. The strip below shows the most-likely state per day, opacity-modulated by the model's confidence; uncertainty mass for the unlabelled states is split evenly in the stacked-area visualization.
Calm
Elevated
Crisis
Last 30 days
Calm 0%
Elev 50%
Crisis 50%
Last 90 days
Calm 4%
Elev 49%
Crisis 47%
Since inception
Calm 18%
Elev 40%
Crisis 41%
Recent observations
| Date | Level | Change | Const. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | 102.90 | −1.41 | 36 |
| 2026-08-17 | 102.98 | +0.08 | 36 |
| 2026-08-18 | 100.19 | −2.79 | 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | 97.78 | −2.41 | 35 |
| 2026-08-20 | 90.56 | −7.22 | 35 |
| 2026-08-21 | 92.45 | +1.89 | 35 |
| 2026-08-22 | 91.22 | −1.23 | 34 |
| 2026-08-23 | 94.43 | +3.21 | 31 |
| 2026-08-24 | 94.36 | −0.07 | 34 |
| 2026-08-25 | 95.37 | +1.01 | 33 |
| 2026-08-26 | 95.31 | −0.06 | 33 |
| 2026-08-27 | 91.99 | −3.32 | 35 |
| 2026-08-28 | 96.42 | +4.43 | 36 |
| 2026-08-29 | 96.34 | −0.08 | 36 |
| 2026-08-30 | 96.54 | +0.20 | 36 |
Reconstitution timeline
Most-recent basket entry/exit events with the headline impact at the time. Default view shows the top 20; click below to expand to the latest 100 events. "MAJOR" badges flag events that met at least one of: |1D move| ≥ 10 pts, combined add+remove ≥ 4, or composition change ≥ 150%. Older history (348 events prior to the most-recent 100) is recorded in the methodology archive.
2026-08-28Headline 96.17 +4.79
+Kxdebtgrowth 28dec31 45+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-08-27Headline 91.38 −2.93
+Kxagencyelim 29 Usaid+Kximpeach 27 Mar01
2026-08-26Headline 94.31 +0.62
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
2026-08-24Headline 97.99 +1.08
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0
2026-08-23Headline 96.91 +1.70MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0−Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxtrumpremove−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-08-21Headline 96.14 −2.30MAJOR
−Kxusairanagreement 27−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September −Will Person F be the New Republican Nomi?−Will Ralph Norman be the New Republican ?
2026-08-20Headline 98.44 −3.23
+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Oc
2026-08-18Headline 106.28 +3.19MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 48+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Au+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Se−Power 28 Dh Ds Dp
2026-08-15Headline 104.05 −3.55MAJOR
+Kxtrumpremove+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 3−Kxreccount 27 1
2026-08-14Headline 107.60 −1.37
−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Will Russell Fry be the New Republican N?
2026-08-13Headline 108.97 −2.99
+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3−Will Person G be the New Republican Nomi?
2026-08-12Headline 111.96 +1.98MAJOR
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50−Kxusairanagreement 27 26sep
2026-08-11Headline 109.98 +1.21MAJOR
+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31+Power 28 Dh Ds Dp−Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-08-09Headline 107.30 +6.00MAJOR
−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31
2026-08-08Headline 101.30 +2.61
+Kxreccount 27 1
2026-08-07Headline 98.69 +1.14MAJOR
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb+Will 2 Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026?−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3
2026-08-06Headline 97.55 +1.08
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-08-04Headline 96.35 +5.50
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-08-03Headline 90.85 +0.38
−Will 2 Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026?
2026-08-02Headline 90.47 +2.33
+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov+Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct+Kxusairanagreement 27 26sep
2026-08-01Headline 88.14 −2.87
+Kximpeach 29 Jan20−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−US Announces Halt in Iran Offensive Oper
2026-07-31Headline 91.01 −1.17MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5+Fed Rate Cut by October 2026 Meeting 199+Will 2 Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026?+Will Person G be the New Republican Nomi?−Kximpeach 29 Jan20−Will the Fed Decrease Interest Rates by ?
2026-07-30Headline 92.18 +0.30MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9+2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4+Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting+Fed Rate Hike in 2026+10 more−Will the US Announce an Iran Ceasefire B?
2026-07-29Headline 91.88 +5.18
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04+Kxrecssnber 26
2026-07-27Headline 106.91 +0.99
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45
2026-07-26Headline 105.92 +0.34
−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
2026-07-23Headline 101.41 +3.51
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-07-20Headline 85.08 −4.35
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-07-19Headline 89.43 −5.49MAJOR
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+US Announces Halt in Iran Offensive Oper+Will the US Announce an Iran Ceasefire B?−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−Kxusairanagreement 27 26sep−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-07-17Headline 97.59 −5.88MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-07-15Headline 104.22 −1.45
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50
2026-07-14Headline 105.67 +2.94
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04+Kximpeach 29 Jan20+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1
2026-07-12Headline 100.12 +0.46
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-07-10Headline 95.91 +8.78MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kximpeach 27 Mar01
2026-07-09Headline 87.13 +0.97
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0
2026-07-07Headline 86.32 −2.02
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-07-06Headline 88.34 +4.04
+Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct
2026-07-04Headline 86.69 −2.13
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52
2026-07-03Headline 88.82 −0.20
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-07-02Headline 89.02 +2.99
+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52
2026-07-01Headline 86.03 +1.85
−Kximpeach 29 Jan20−Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-30Headline 84.18 +1.24
+Kxretiremm 26
2026-06-29Headline 82.94 −1.25
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
2026-06-28Headline 84.19 −1.91
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec
2026-06-25Headline 92.18 −6.96MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-06-23Headline 100.44 −8.22
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab
2026-06-20Headline 102.46 +1.65
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb
2026-06-19Headline 100.81 +9.15MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−US Iran Nuclear Deal by June 30−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by July 3
2026-06-18Headline 91.66 +0.82MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+Kxtrumpvslaughter−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Decemb−Will the Text of the US Iran Agreement B?
2026-06-17Headline 90.84 −2.26MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-06-16Headline 93.10 +0.76MAJOR
+Kxretiremm 26+Will the Text of the US Iran Agreement B?−Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-06-14Headline 105.14 −3.62MAJOR
+Kxtrumpvslaughter+Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4
2026-06-12Headline 110.04 +0.86MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Fed Rate Cut by July 2026 Meeting 577
2026-06-11Headline 109.18 −0.97MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-06-10Headline 110.15 +13.81MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 1
2026-06-09Headline 96.34 +3.16
+Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb
2026-06-08Headline 93.18 +2.78MAJOR
−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct
2026-06-07Headline 90.40 −4.90MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50
2026-06-04Headline 98.85 −0.88MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxdsenateseats 27 49−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-03Headline 99.73 −1.17MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 49+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxlosemajority 27jan01
2026-06-02Headline 100.90 +2.54MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxdhouseseats 27 210−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxrhouseseats 27 193−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 7
2026-06-01Headline 98.36 +1.76MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-05-31Headline 96.60 −3.70MAJOR
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Kxnextspeaker 31 Hjef
2026-05-30Headline 100.30 −8.49MAJOR
+Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Fed Rate Cut by June 2026 Meeting
2026-05-29Headline 108.79 −3.03MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxsenatetxr 26 Jc−Kxsenatetxr 26 Kp−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-28Headline 111.82 +1.14MAJOR
+Kxlosemajority 27jan01+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd−Kxelectionbill 27jan01
2026-05-27Headline 110.68 −3.47MAJOR
+Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+Fed Rate Cut by June 2026 Meeting−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut
2026-05-26Headline 114.15 −0.72MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 210+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53−US Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 974−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 3−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 31−Will Any US Senator Enter Iran by June 3?
2026-05-25Headline 114.87 +4.68
+Kxusairanagreement 27 26oct−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-05-24Headline 110.19 +13.79MAJOR
+Kxnextspeaker 31 Hjef+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 28+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ma−Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in Russia?
2026-05-23Headline 96.40 −5.32MAJOR
+Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 7−Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-22Headline 101.72 +1.09
+Kximpeach 27 Jan01+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-05-21Headline 100.63 +6.11MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Kxsenatemed 26 Gra+Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-05-20Headline 94.52 −3.82
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2
2026-05-19Headline 98.34 +2.30MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Kximpeach 29 Jan20+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-18Headline 96.04 −0.15MAJOR
−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kximpeach 29 Jan20−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in China ?
2026-05-16Headline 99.43 +1.39MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by July 3+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 1−Kxcitrini 28jul01−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-05-15Headline 98.04 −2.53MAJOR
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxdhouseseats 27 210−Kxdhouseseats 27 249−Kxtariffchecks 26 27−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−3 more
2026-05-14Headline 100.57 −0.33MAJOR
+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Power 28 Rh Rs Rp−Kxtrumpvslaughter−Will Donald Trump Not Visit China by May?
2026-05-13Headline 100.90 −0.20MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 249−Kxu3max 27 5−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 15 ?
2026-05-12Headline 101.10 +0.91
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000
2026-05-11Headline 100.19 −2.53MAJOR
+Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Fed Rate Cut by June 2026 Meeting−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 16−1 more
2026-05-10Headline 102.72 +1.86MAJOR
+Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in Russia?−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 15−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 15
2026-05-09Headline 100.86 −2.09MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 15 ?−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-05-08Headline 102.95 +2.02MAJOR
+Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb+Kxcitrini 28jul01+Kxdhouseseats 27 210+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+2 more−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 15 ?
2026-05-07Headline 100.93 +0.00
−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxu3max 27 5
2026-05-06Headline 100.93 +2.36MAJOR
+Kxtariffchecks 26 27+Kxu3max 27 5+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 31
2026-05-05Headline 98.57 −2.93
+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Decemb−Will Trump Agree to Iranian Oil Sanction?
2026-05-04Headline 101.50 +1.64
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2
2026-05-03Headline 99.86 −0.90
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14
2026-05-02Headline 100.76 +3.45MAJOR
−Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxtrumpremove−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 16 ?
2026-05-01Headline 97.31 +1.62MAJOR
+Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ma−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxcitrini 28jul01−Kxtariffchecks 26 27−Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by June 3−Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 11 ?−4 more
2026-04-30Headline 95.69 −1.20
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+US Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 974+Will Trump Agree to Iranian Oil Sanction?
2026-04-29Headline 96.89 −2.08MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2+Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-04-28Headline 98.97 −8.84MAJOR
+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 15+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 16+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 15+Will Donald Trump Not Visit China by May?+Will Donald Trump Visit China on May 11 ?+8 more−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P3.5−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-04-27Headline 107.81 +8.22MAJOR
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Will Kevin Warsh be Confirmed as Fed Cha?−Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in Russia?
2026-04-25Headline 94.81 +7.19MAJOR
+Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14−Kxdsenateseats 27 51−Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ap−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April
2026-04-24Headline 87.62 +1.69
−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Will Trump Visit China by May 8 157?
2026-04-23Headline 85.93 +1.66MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in China ?+Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in Russia?−Will Trump Agree to Iranian Oil Sanction?
2026-04-22Headline 84.27 +5.49MAJOR
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Fed Rate Cut by June 2026 Meeting+US Iran Nuclear Deal by June 30+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April +US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 3+1 more
AURA-PUI is a daily index of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, built from prediction market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. It covers five policy domains: monetary, fiscal and regulatory, trade and geopolitical, macroeconomic outcomes, and sector-specific. The index aggregates uncertainty signals from active, policy-relevant contracts into a single daily headline level (base 100, inception April 20, 2024).
Inputs
AURA-PUI draws on binary and multi-outcome contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. For each contract, the index uses the current price, recent price dynamics, traded volume, and, where available, the quoted bid-ask spread. Contracts are screened for policy relevance and assigned to one of the five domains.
Construction
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline.
Revisions
v2.6 (June 10, 2026): Layer-2 conditional-uncertainty normalization changed from median-referenced z-scores to a pooled cross-sectional ECDF, removing score saturation; index scaling re-anchored level-neutrally at the cutover; point-in-time daily volume measurement adopted for Polymarket constituents; daily values finalize at T+1. The eligible contract universe was simultaneously restocked (+104 markets ahead of the 2026 midterms), so prints around the cutover date reflect both the methodology revision and the broader universe. Published values dated before the cutover are locked and unaffected.
Data sources
Aurelian fetches contract prices via public APIs and computes derived series independently. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or co-publish this index.
- Informational use only. AURA-PUI is provided for informational and research purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to trade any contract, and not a benchmark for any financial product.
- Independent publisher. Aurelian is not affiliated with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any contract issuer or exchange. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or review this index or its methodology.
- Methodology may evolve. Aurelian reserves the right to refine the index methodology. Material revisions are documented in the methodology paper. Historical levels are not retroactively recomputed under revised methodology.
- Data quality. Prediction-market liquidity varies; periods of low aggregate liquidity may increase index sensitivity to single contracts. The methodology documents the cap and blending rules that mitigate this.
- Past performance. AURA-PUI is a measurement, not a tradable instrument. Historical levels do not indicate future levels of policy uncertainty.
Index Updates and Research
Contact
Questions or data requests: support@aurelianhq.com